PwC to Ghana govt: Spend more in 2027, but spend smart to drive growth

Ghana’s government must increase public spending in the 2027 budget but channel funds into productive sectors rather than diffuse consumption, the new Country Senior Partner of PwC Ghana has warned, as Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson prepares to present the “New Economy” budget to Parliament on Thursday.

George Arhin, who took office barely a month ago, told the Daily Graphic that the 2026 budget had achieved its primary objective of stabilising the economy. The task now, he argued, is to convert that stability into private-sector-led growth before favourable external conditions—particularly high gold prices—evaporate.

“We have recovered and stabilised, but that stability came on the back of robust monetary and fiscal policies supported by external factors like gold prices. That cannot be sustained because if you are not spending, the economy cannot grow,” Arhin said in an interview in Accra last Friday .

The spending imperative

Ghana’s expenditure programmes have ballooned in recent years—from GH¢268.8 billion in the 2025 budget to GH¢302.5 billion in 2026 . Arhin said the 2027 budget must exceed those figures, but with a critical caveat: efficiency matters more than volume.

“We cannot grow the economy simply by increasing expenditure; we must ensure that every investment delivers value, creates jobs and strengthens the productive sectors,” he said, naming agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, textiles and tourism as priority areas .

The finance minister is expected to unveil the details of the $10 billion New Economy Programme, a four-year initiative running from 2027 to 2030 aimed at stimulating domestic production, local processing and job creation . President John Dramani Mahama has already signalled that over $9 billion will be invested in job-creating sectors during the period, with the Volta Region positioned to benefit from textiles, commercial agriculture and hospitality projects .

Funding without new borrowing

Crucially, Forson has ruled out additional borrowing to finance the programme. Speaking at Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, the minister said the initiative would be funded through an annual allocation equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, sourced from 0.5% of government revenue and a reduction in the primary surplus target from 1.5% to 0.5% of GDP .

That approach projects total funding of at least $13 billion over four years—more than the headline $10 billion figure—while still allowing the government to meet its debt sustainability commitments, including reducing public debt to 45% of GDP by 2028 .

The agricultural paradox

Arhin zeroed in on what he called a glaring anomaly: agriculture contributes about 21% of GDP and employs 33% of the population, yet accounts for a mere 0.05% of tax revenue .

“It’s not about bringing in new tax handles or increasing the tax rate; it’s about widening the database to include the vast majority of people who are not paying taxes,” he said, advocating for formalising smallholder farming and strengthening agro-processing to shift activity from the primary to the secondary sector .

Growth trajectory

The economy is currently expanding at around 5.5%, a pace Arhin described as encouraging but insufficient. The IMF has raised Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast to 5.7%, placing the country among sub-Saharan Africa’s ten fastest-growing economies . The African Development Bank projects growth moderating to 5.0% in 2026 before recovering to 5.4% in 2027 .

Arhin argued that sustained double-digit growth is needed for meaningful transformation—and that achieving it requires efficient investment in the real sectors rather than reliance on commodity windfalls.

“We need to grow into the double-digit numbers and sustain that growth to transform our economy,” he said .

Business positioning

The PwC partner urged investors and businesses to identify which sectors are likely to receive significant government allocations under the New Economy Programme and align their strategies accordingly. He stressed that the programme’s success would hinge on whether it catalyses private investment and formal employment, not merely on government disbursements.

“The New Economy is a game-changer. If we are able to focus the money dedicated to it and spend it well, we will move the dial,” he said .

The budget presentation is scheduled for Thursday, November 12, with a post-budget workshop for MPs planned for November 15–17 .