Petrol Prices Projected to Fall in Second November Window, but Diesel Relief May Lag, COPEC Says

Petrol prices are expected to decline in the second pricing window of November 2026 following a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, but diesel may not see the same relief due to seasonal demand pressures, the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has projected.

Duncan Amoah, Executive Secretary of COPEC, told Eyewitness News on Thursday, November 5, that crude oil prices had fallen by 12 to 14 percent over the preceding 48 hours, a decline that typically takes six to seven days to reflect in refined product prices.

"If all things are equal, and what we have observed since the mid-term elections in America happened is that you have seen prices consistently drop on the international market, our prediction or projection will be that for the second window of November, the cost of petrol, particularly, would have witnessed some reduction," Amoah said.

He urged Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and Bulk Distribution Companies (BDCs) to ensure that any reductions in international petroleum prices are passed on to consumers. "Petrol is likely to come down, and we would be hoping that the OMCs, the BDCs, would let that reduction reflect," he said.

Diesel's Winter Squeeze

Amoah cautioned that the expected reduction might not extend to diesel to the same extent, citing increased demand for the product during the winter season in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Diesel consumption typically rises during colder months as countries increase their use of the product for heating, potentially limiting the extent of price reductions.

The divergence reflects a pattern observed in Ghana's fuel market in recent months. In the first pricing window of November, diesel prices rose by an average of 7.54 percent while petrol fell by 3.19 percent, according to COPEC data . The Chamber attributed the diesel increase to a 9.48 percent rise in the product's international price, while petrol's international price had fallen by 6.67 percent over the same period .

Geopolitical Risks Loom

Despite the positive outlook, Amoah warned that renewed geopolitical tensions could reverse the recent decline in crude oil prices. He pointed specifically to the possibility of renewed hostilities involving the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a significant share of global petroleum passes.

"We are not completely out of the woods yet because, again, you also hear the United States government indicate that there will be a resumption of hostilities with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a recurring source of market anxiety. In June 2026, following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Ghanaian fuel prices jumped—petrol by 4.63 percent and diesel by 6.96 percent—as Brent crude spiked and the cedi weakened against the dollar . The government responded with a GH¢2.00 per litre subsidy on diesel and a GH¢0.36 per litre subsidy on petrol effective April 16, measures that have since been extended and adjusted multiple times at a cumulative cost exceeding GH¢2 billion .

The Subsidy Context

The government's interventions have complicated the pass-through of international price movements to consumers. In August, President Mahama directed the NPA to reduce the regulatory margin on diesel by GH¢2.00 per litre for one month, a move intended to "cushion consumers, prevent transport fare hikes, contain inflationary pressures, and mitigate the pass-through effect of higher fuel prices on the cost of living" . The policy was subsequently extended through September.

Amoah said the direction of petroleum prices in the coming days would depend largely on international market movements and developments in the geopolitical environment.