"Inflation of 5.2% Means Nothing to Someone Spending 12 Hours Travelling to Kumasi" — Bokpin

One of Ghana's most respected economists has delivered a blunt assessment of the gap between the country's improving macroeconomic indicators and the daily reality of ordinary Ghanaians, arguing that headline inflation figures offer little comfort to citizens enduring crumbling infrastructure and punishing commutes.

Professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin, a Professor of Finance at the University of Ghana Business School, said on Joy News' PM Express on Tuesday that while the government had made genuine progress in stabilising the economy, its reliance on expenditure cuts was delaying the tangible benefits of recovery .

"If somebody is spending nine to 12 hours to travel from here to Kumasi, inflation of 5.2% means nothing to that person," Bokpin said.

He also pointed to the daily ordeal commuters face on the Accra-Tema Motorway, arguing that for people confronting such conditions, lower inflation is an abstraction that bears no relation to their lived experience.

"It's simply because the approach we have adopted in restoring macroeconomic stability is going to take a while to reflect in the lives of Ghanaians," he said.

The Numbers Behind the Disconnect

Bokpin's remarks come at a delicate moment. The inflation rate he referenced—5.2%—was the September 2026 figure. By the time of his appearance, the Ghana Statistical Service had already reported that inflation had risen for a third consecutive month to 5.5% in October, driven largely by a sharp surge in transport costs .

Transport inflation jumped from 5.7% in September to 14.1% in October, with prices in the sector rising 8% within the single month . Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels recorded inflation of 10.5%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall rate. Together, food, housing, and transport accounted for approximately 70% of the country's inflation .

Services inflation climbed to 11.5% from 8.3%, rising at roughly three times the rate of goods . The Ashanti Region—home to Kumasi—recorded the highest regional inflation rate at 9.7% .

In other words, the very costs that dominate the lives of commuters and households are the ones driving prices upward, even as the headline figure remains below the Bank of Ghana's medium-term target of 8% .

Austerity Without Expansion

Bokpin acknowledged that the government's approach had succeeded in cooling the economy by suppressing demand. But he argued that this strategy had failed to address the supply-side constraints that limit Ghana's productive capacity.

"If you choose that approach, you will get the result, but the impact will not be felt by Ghanaians," he said.

His critique centred on the government's heavy reliance on expenditure cuts as the primary tool of macroeconomic stabilisation. For a country with a vast infrastructure deficit—dilapidated roads, unreliable power, inadequate water systems—restricting spending on the very drivers of growth was self-defeating.

"So, for a country that is saddled with a huge infrastructure deficit, imposing restrictions on the growth drivers of the economy, such a country cannot celebrate extensive austerity expenditure cuts," Bokpin said.

The Road to Kumasi: A Case Study in Delay

The Accra-Kumasi route Bokpin invoked is emblematic of the infrastructure challenge. The existing highway, approximately 270 kilometres long, typically takes five to six hours to traverse—and often far longer when accidents or breakdowns occur . A journey that should be a routine domestic trip becomes, for many travellers, a gruelling half-day ordeal.

President John Dramani Mahama has promised that a new 198.7-kilometre, six-lane Accra-Kumasi Expressway will reduce travel time to approximately two hours, with construction expected to begin by the end of 2026 . But for now, the road remains a daily indictment of the gap between promise and delivery.

Acknowledging the Progress

Despite his criticisms, Bokpin was careful to credit the government for what it had achieved. He noted falling inflation and interest rates, alongside the cedi's relative resilience despite renewed pressure.

The Ghana Reference Rate, the benchmark commercial banks use to price loans, fell to 10.01% for November 2026, extending a downward trend . The cedi traded at approximately GH¢11.84 to the dollar on November 10, having appreciated marginally . The Bank of Ghana has maintained its policy rate at 14% while monitoring inflationary developments .

"To that extent, and to the extent that that is what we are set out to achieve in the first two years of the administration, I would say they've done quite well in restoring macroeconomic stability," Bokpin said.

The Next Phase: From Stabilisation to Transformation

Bokpin's comments landed just two days before Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson is scheduled to present the 2027 Budget on Thursday, November 12, under the theme "New Economy" . The four-year programme is expected to outline a shift from stabilisation toward productive investment and economic transformation, with President Mahama having announced plans to invest more than $9 billion in job-creating sectors between 2027 and 2030 .

The Minority in Parliament has already challenged the programme's financing, with Dr Mohammed Amin Adam, Ranking Member on the Finance Committee, questioning whether the government had demonstrated the capacity to deliver on its existing commitments, let alone new ones .

Bokpin's intervention suggests that the government's credibility on the "New Economy" will hinge not on the sophistication of its policy documents, but on whether Ghanaians can see and feel the difference. A commuter who spends half a day on the road to Kumasi is not waiting for a statistical release. They are waiting for a road.

Key Points:

· Bokpin's critique: Inflation figures are meaningless to citizens facing 9–12 hour commutes and failing infrastructure

· Inflation reality: October 2026 inflation rose to 5.5%, with transport inflation at 14.1% and services at 11.5%

· Austerity's limits: Government's demand-side approach has stabilised the economy but not expanded productive capacity

· Acknowledged progress: Falling inflation, interest rates, and relative cedi stability

· Budget ahead: 2027 "New Economy" budget to be presented November 12 amid questions over financing.