IMF Says Ghana Reforms Bearing Fruit as Growth Outpaces Expectations, Engagement Shifts to Long-Term Resilience

The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that its engagement with Ghana is pivoting from crisis response to supporting deeper reforms and building longer-term resilience, crediting the West African nation’s own ownership of difficult policies for delivering stability and growth that has exceeded expectations.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told reporters in Washington that Ghana was seeing greater macroeconomic stability, underscoring the country’s implementation of sometimes painful reforms “under difficult circumstances.”

“These are now bearing fruits ... in terms of stability and the strength of the economy,” Kozack said at a regular news briefing.

The remarks came a day after Ghana’s Finance Minister presented a 2027 budget showing a primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP for January–October 2026, ahead of the full-year target, with public debt at GH¢759.3 billion, or 47.5% of GDP .

From Bailout to Policy Coordination

Ghana completed the sixth and final review of its roughly $3 billion Extended Credit Facility in July 2026, a programme approved in May 2023 when the country faced soaring inflation, currency depreciation and lost access to international capital markets . The Fund subsequently approved a 36-month, non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) designed to lock in reforms without providing new loans.

Under the PCI, the IMF focuses on sustaining growth-friendly fiscal adjustment, safeguarding debt sustainability, strengthening transparency at state-owned enterprises, enhancing the monetary and exchange-rate framework, reinforcing financial sector stability, and supporting economic diversification .

In early November, IMF staff reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the first review of the PCI, describing performance as “broadly satisfactory” with most quantitative targets met. The IMF Executive Board is scheduled to consider the review by mid-January 2027 .

Growth and Inflation Beat Targets

Ghana’s economy expanded 6.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, driven by investment, according to the IMF. The Fund projects full-year growth of 5.7%, up sharply from an earlier forecast of 4.6% and above the government’s 4.8% budget target .

Inflation has also cooled faster than anticipated. Consumer prices rose 5.5% in October, within the Bank of Ghana’s 6–10% target band. The IMF has lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.8%, which would mark Ghana’s second consecutive year of single-digit inflation .

The fiscal turnaround has been equally pronounced. The primary surplus overperformed programme targets in 2025, and the debt ratio declined sharply following restructuring agreements with official and commercial creditors . Interest payments as a share of domestic revenue fell from 25.6% to 17.8% between January and October 2026, creating fiscal room for infrastructure and social spending .

Reserve Drawdown Poses a Test

Despite the broad improvements, the IMF has flagged declining foreign exchange reserves as a vulnerability requiring corrective action. Gross international reserves fell from a peak of $14.16 billion in March 2026 to $11.07 billion by end-August, before recovering to $12.05 billion—about 4.5 months of import cover—by late September .

In response, authorities are shifting foreign exchange intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to the newly established Ghana Gold Board and raising mandatory gold sale requirements for large-scale mining companies. The IMF said consistent implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange-rate flexibility, will be essential to rebuilding buffers .

The Fund has also warned that Ghana’s heavy reliance on gold exports leaves the economy exposed to commodity price swings, urging export diversification to sustain growth beyond the current rebound .

Structural Reforms Advance, With Gaps

Ghana has made progress on several structural benchmarks under the programme, including parliamentary approval of a new Cocoa Board Act, quarterly electricity tariff adjustments, and completion of a review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule. Work continues on reforming the central bank’s liquidity management framework and operationalising the Fiscal Council .

However, the IMF noted delays in publishing an independent audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s collection accounts, and has called for stronger oversight of state-owned enterprises, which remain a source of fiscal risk.

What’s Next

The IMF’s shift to the PCI reflects a broader transition: Ghana is no longer in crisis mode, but the gains remain fragile. The 2027 budget targets a lower primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP—down from 1.5% in 2026—to free space for job creation and infrastructure spending, while still aiming to keep debt on a downward path toward the legislated 45%-of-GDP anchor by 2034 .

Fund officials have stressed that rigorous project appraisal, competitive procurement and expenditure controls will be critical to preserving credibility while creating room for development spending.

“Sustaining the reform momentum is critical,” the IMF’s mission chief for Ghana, Ruben Atoyan, said following the November review .