T-Bill auction: Government records 2.8% oversubscription as yields extend declines

Investor demand for Treasury bills remained resilient at the latest primary market auction, with total bids exceeding the government’s target by 2.83%, even as yields continued their downward trajectory across the curve.

Data from the Bank of Ghana show that investors tendered a total of GH¢8.20 billion, compared with the government’s target of GH¢7.97 billion. This resulted in an oversubscription of approximately GH¢225.73 million .

The government accepted a total of GH¢7.21 billion of the bids submitted, representing about 87.9% of total investor bids. Despite the strong subscription rate, total investor bids fell by 18% week-on-week.

91-Day Bill Dominates Demand

The 91-day Treasury bill continued to attract the largest volume of investor interest, with GH¢4.56 billion tendered, of which the government accepted GH¢4.52 billion. The 182-day bill received GH¢2.07 billion in bids, of which GH¢1.82 billion was accepted.

The 364-day bill garnered GH¢1.56 billion in bids, but the government accepted only GH¢867.93 million—the largest rejection rate among the three tenors .

Yields Continue Downward Slide

The sustained liquidity in the market pushed yields further down along the curve. The 91-day yield fell by about 11 basis points to 4.69%, from 4.80% the previous week. The 182-day yield declined by approximately 17 basis points to 6.51%, from 6.68%.

The 364-day bill recorded the smallest decline, falling by about 1 basis point to 10.10%, from 10.11% .

Broader Context: Rates at Historic Lows

The continued decline in Treasury bill rates reflects a broader trend of improving macroeconomic conditions in Ghana. According to the 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review presented to Parliament in July, the 91-day Treasury bill rate declined from 28.5% in January 2025 to 5.7% by June 2026, while the 182-day bill rate dropped from 29.1% to 7.7% over the same period .

The 364-day bill rate fell from 30.4% in January 2025 to 12.8% by June 2026. The decline in rates forms part of broader economic indicators highlighted by government as evidence of improved macroeconomic stability and renewed investor confidence.

Rising Public Debt and Domestic Borrowing

The strong demand for Treasury bills comes against the backdrop of Ghana’s rising public debt, which reached GH¢719.52 billion at the end of June 2026, representing 45.0% of GDP. This was up from GH¢641.11 billion (44.7% of GDP) recorded in December 2025 .

The Bank of Ghana attributed the increase to domestic borrowing as government moved to build buffers for future debt service obligations. Domestic debt rose to GH¢391.12 billion at the end of June 2026 from GH¢333.76 billion in December 2025, an increase of GH¢57.36 billion. Short-term instruments remained the dominant component of domestic debt, reflecting strong investor demand for government securities, particularly 364-day Treasury bills .

Market Outlook

Analysts believe that as the concentration of liquidity dilutes towards other tighter alternatives in the market, yields will gradually approach an equilibrium, where further declines become relatively muted.

For the next auction, the government is targeting GH¢4.12 billion through the issuance of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bills.