Ghana’s construction sector to peak in 2026 before slowing in 2027-2028 — Fitch solutions forecast

Ghana’s construction industry is set for a robust performance in 2026, with Gross Value Added (GVA) expected to expand by 5.2%—up from 3.1% in 2025—but the momentum will taper off in the subsequent two years, according to the latest forecast from Fitch Solutions. The London-based research firm projects that growth will ease to 5.1% in 2027 and further decelerate to 4.5% in 2028, reflecting a combination of base effects, easing public infrastructure spending, and potential headwinds from global commodity price volatility.

Ghana’s Regional Standing

Despite the projected slowdown, Ghana ranks 7th among Sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations with the highest construction GVA, outperforming regional heavyweights Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa—all of which are grappling with currency depreciation, fiscal constraints, and reduced oil-driven capital expenditure. Ethiopia leads the regional ranking, followed by Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda in second and third places, respectively. Ghana’s relatively strong position is attributed to ongoing investments in road networks, affordable housing schemes, and the expansion of port and airport infrastructure, coupled with a stable political environment that continues to attract foreign contractors.

Regional Outlook Downgraded Amid Global Tensions

Fitch Solutions has revised its SSA construction GVA forecast downward for 2026, now projecting real growth of 4.3% compared to 4.6% in its April 2026 assessment and 5.4% in December 2025. The downgrade is largely blamed on the economic fallout from the US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted supply chains, elevated shipping costs, and increased prices for construction materials such as steel, cement, and bitumen. The region’s construction sector grew by 4.5% in 2025, marking a significant recovery from the average annual contraction of -0.6% recorded between 2020 and 2024—a period plagued by the COVID-19 pandemic, debt restructuring, and global inflationary pressures.

However, the firm maintains a bullish medium-term outlook, forecasting that SSA’s construction GVA will expand at an annual average of 5.1% between 2026 and 2030. This resilience is underpinned by rapid urbanisation, a youthful demographic profile, increasing Chinese and Middle Eastern investment, and the operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to spur cross-border infrastructure projects.

Global Context: Africa Remains the Fastest-Growing Market

Fitch Solutions emphasises that even with the 2026 downgrade, SSA will remain the world’s fastest-growing construction market—both in 2026 and over the medium term. For perspective, global construction GVA is forecast to grow by just 1.2% in 2026 and by an average of 2.5% annually between 2026 and 2030. By contrast, SSA’s projected 4.3% growth for 2026 is more than three times the global average.

Among other regions, Latin America is expected to see the second-highest growth in 2026 at 1.7%, while Asia-Pacific will take second place over the 2026-2030 period with an annual average of 3.1%. The stark divergence highlights the structural tailwinds driving African construction, including massive infrastructure deficits, rising middle-class demand for housing, and government-led industrialisation programmes.

Factors Behind Ghana’s 2026 Peak and Subsequent Slowdown

The forecast 5.2% growth for Ghana in 2026 is buoyed by several near-term catalysts:

· Election-year spending: With general elections scheduled for December 2026, the government has accelerated road and public building projects to demonstrate delivery, boosting activity in the first three quarters.
· Post-IMF recovery: Ghana’s successful completion of its IMF-supported programme has restored investor confidence, unlocking disbursements from multilateral lenders for energy and transport projects.
· Private residential demand: Rising remittance inflows and the stabilisation of the cedi have spurred private-sector home construction, particularly in Accra and Kumasi.

However, the slowdown in 2027 and 2028—to 5.1% and 4.5%, respectively—reflects several structural pressures:

· Base effects: After a strong 2026, year-on-year comparisons become more difficult.
· Fiscal consolidation: The government is expected to reduce its capital expenditure as it prioritises debt repayment and social spending, potentially delaying new mega-projects.
· Material cost volatility: While global energy prices have moderated, the lingering effects of the US-Iran conflict continue to inflate the cost of imported construction inputs, squeezing contractor margins and leading to project delays.
· Interest rate environment: Although T-bill yields are falling, commercial lending rates remain elevated (above 20%), making it costly for developers to finance large-scale projects.

Expert Commentary and Industry Reactions

Local industry stakeholders have responded with cautious optimism. The Ghana Institute of Architects (GIA) welcomed the forecast but called for policy measures to sustain growth beyond 2026. “The 5.2% growth is encouraging, but we cannot afford to be complacent. The government must prioritise local production of building materials—cement, steel, and glass—to insulate the sector from external shocks,” said GIA President Nana Adu-Boahen in a statement.

Similarly, the Association of Building and Civil Engineering Contractors of Ghana (ABCECG) urged the Ministry of Works and Housing to release a long-term infrastructure pipeline to guide private investment. “Contractors need certainty. A 5.1% growth in 2027 is still decent, but if we don’t have a clear roadmap, we risk a sharper drop,” noted ABCECG Secretary Kwame Asante.

Economic analysts at the University of Ghana’s Legon Centre for Economic Research point out that construction GVA is a key driver of employment, accounting for roughly 7% of formal sector jobs. A slowdown could offset gains in other sectors, particularly if the government’s flagship “One District, One Factory” initiative fails to pick up steam.

Comparison with Peers and Risks

While Ghana outperforms Nigeria and South Africa, it lags behind Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire, both of which benefit from massive Chinese-backed transport corridors and aggressive urban development programmes. Ghana’s challenge is to move beyond public-sector-led projects and foster a self-sustaining private construction market.

Key downside risks to the forecast include a resurgence of inflationary pressures, a sharp depreciation of the cedi against the dollar, and a possible decline in gold and cocoa prices—which could squeeze government revenues and force further cuts in infrastructure budgets. Conversely, an upside surprise could come from a faster-than-expected rollout of the Ghana Railway Development Authority’s planned standard-gauge rail network or a surge in foreign direct investment in the mining and energy sectors.

Outlook for the Medium Term

Despite the projected deceleration in 2027-2028, Fitch Solutions remains confident about Ghana’s long-term construction prospects. The country’s urban population is expected to reach 60% by 2030, requiring an estimated 1.5 million new housing units. Additionally, the ongoing rehabilitation of the Tema Oil Refinery and the expansion of the Takoradi Port are likely to generate significant civil engineering work beyond the forecast horizon.

For now, Ghanaian contractors and investors can look forward to a banner year in 2026—but they must prepare for a more challenging environment in the years that follow. As Fitch Solutions puts it: “The region’s construction market is not immune to global headwinds, but its underlying fundamentals remain among the strongest in the world. Ghana, with its stable democracy and growing middle class, is well-positioned to capture that momentum—provided policymakers do not rest on their laurels.”