Ghana's Economy on Track Despite External Risks, Says Finance Ministry Advisor Theo Acheampong

Ghana's economic recovery programme remains broadly on course following the staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on the first review of the Policy Coordination Instrument, according to Dr Theo Acheampong, Technical Advisor at the Ministry of Finance.

In a commentary on the agreement shared on X on Thursday, November 5, 2026, Dr Acheampong said the assessment reflected the resilience of the economy, progress in meeting programme targets and ongoing structural reforms, while cautioning that significant risks remained.

"Programme performance [is] broadly satisfactory; most quantitative targets met, structural reforms on track," he noted.

Strong Headline Numbers

The figures underpinning Dr Acheampong's assessment are indeed robust by recent historical standards. Ghana recorded GDP growth of 6.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, driven by investment, with full-year growth projected at 5.7 per cent. Inflation stood at 5.5 per cent in October, comfortably below the Bank of Ghana's target band of 8±2 per cent. The primary surplus is on track to meet the end-year programme target, and public debt remains low following rapid declines in recent years .

Dr Acheampong highlighted the government's 2027 Budget target of achieving a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP, describing it as part of efforts to consolidate economic gains while creating fiscal space for job creation and infrastructure development. The reduction from the 1.5 per cent target maintained for 2026 was agreed with the IMF to free up resources for priority spending under the New Economy agenda .

He also pointed to ongoing structural reforms, including the passage of the Cocoa Board Act, continued quarterly electricity tariff adjustments, completion of the customs and excise review, rollout of the Integrated Tax Administration System and operationalisation of the Fiscal Council .

The Risks That Remain

Despite the positive outlook, Dr Acheampong cautioned that the economy remained exposed to several risks. Externally, volatility in gold, cocoa and oil prices, geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions could undermine stability. Domestically, pressure on international reserves, substantial public debt rollover requirements, and fiscal pressures from the energy and cocoa sectors remain key vulnerabilities .

The reserve decline has already prompted corrective action. As the IMF disclosed, Ghana has shifted foreign exchange intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and required large-scale miners to sell a higher proportion of their gold, measures intended to rebuild buffers in line with programme objectives .

Background: From Crisis to Consolidation

Dr Acheampong's assessment carries particular weight given his dual role as a technical advisor to the Finance Ministry and a economist who has closely tracked Ghana's fiscal trajectory. A former country economist at the African Development Bank and a research associate at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, he noted in September that Ghana had completed its 17th and final review under the Extended Credit Facility, exceeding targets on the primary balance, inflation, reserves and structural benchmarks—a "significant turnaround" from the crisis years.

The numbers tell the story of that turnaround. The primary fiscal balance improved from a deficit of 2.9 per cent of GDP in 2023 to a surplus of 2.6 per cent in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 61.8 per cent to 45.3 per cent—well ahead of the initial 2034 target. Gross international reserves reached US$11.9 billion by end-2025, providing roughly 3.7 months of import cover .

Yet Dr Acheampong has been consistently clear that the gains are conditional. In August, he warned that gold and cocoa price projections remained the biggest risk to the 2026 Budget, noting that falling prices could create fiscal pressure given how much revenue performance had benefited from commodity exports. He has also identified energy sector costs and SOE liabilities as structural risks requiring sustained attention .

The Road to 2027

The staff-level agreement now awaits approval from IMF Management and the Executive Board, with the review expected to go before the Board in January 2027 . For Dr Acheampong and the Finance Ministry, the task between now and then is to complete the eight outstanding reforms the IMF has identified—from reforming the Bank of Ghana's liquidity management framework to adopting the Conduct of Public Officers Bill and strengthening oversight of state-owned enterprises.

Whether Ghana's economy remains "on track" will depend on whether those reforms are completed within agreed timelines, and whether the external risks Dr Acheampong acknowledges remain manageable. For now, the diagnosis from the Ministry's technical advisor is cautiously optimistic: the recovery is real, but it is not yet secure.