Economic growth will take time —Bokpin

Economics Professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin has cautioned that Ghanaians will have to wait longer to feel the benefits of the government's macroeconomic stabilisation, arguing that the recovery has relied heavily on spending cuts that have suppressed demand without addressing the country's production and infrastructure constraints.

Speaking on Joy News' PM Express on Tuesday, Bokpin acknowledged the government had made genuine progress in restoring stability, but said the approach had delayed tangible improvements in living standards.

"It's simply because the approach we have adopted in restoring macroeconomic stability is going to take a while to reflect in the lives of Ghanaians," he said .

His assessment comes two days before Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson presents the 2027 Budget on Thursday, November 12, under the theme "New Economy," a four-year programme centred on investment in productive sectors .

Inflation Figure 'Means Nothing' to Commuters

Bokpin's central critique was that headline statistics obscure the daily reality of ordinary citizens. He cited the experience of travellers spending nine to 12 hours on the road between Accra and Kumasi — a journey that should take a fraction of that time.

"If somebody is spending nine to 12 hours to travel from here to Kumasi, inflation of 5.2% means nothing to that person," he said .

The reference to 5.2% reflects September's inflation rate. By October, inflation had risen to 5.5%, the third consecutive monthly increase, driven largely by transport costs, which surged to 14.1% from 5.7% in September, and services inflation, which climbed to 11.5% from 8.3% . Services are now rising roughly three times as fast as goods .

Austerity Without Expansion

Bokpin explained that spending cuts could bring inflation down by reducing demand, but that approach did not expand the economy's constrained capacity to produce.

"If you choose that approach, you will get the result, but the impact will not be felt by Ghanaians," he said .

For a country with a substantial infrastructure deficit, he argued, prolonged restraint on government investment carried its own costs.

"So, for a country that is saddled with a huge infrastructure deficit, imposing restrictions on the growth drivers of the economy, such a country cannot celebrate extensive austerity expenditure cuts," Bokpin said .

Credit Where It Is Due

Despite his criticisms, Bokpin credited the government with largely delivering on its initial stabilisation objective. He pointed to falling inflation and interest rates, alongside the cedi's relative resilience despite renewed pressure.

The cedi traded at GH¢11.64 to the dollar on the interbank market in early November, having recorded a 0.60% gain against the dollar in October . The Bank of Ghana has maintained its policy rate at 14% since March, with its next decision scheduled for November 18 .

"To that extent, and to the extent that that is what we are set out to achieve in the first two years of the administration, I would say they've done quite well in restoring macroeconomic stability," Bokpin said .

He noted that the government had set aside 2025 and 2026 for stabilisation, with spending cuts featuring heavily in both years. That progress, he said, explained the proposed shift toward transformation through the New Economy agenda.

The Financing Question

Bokpin's comments landed amid growing scrutiny of how the government intends to fund its flagship programmes. The Minority in Parliament, led by Dr Mohammed Amin Adam, has questioned the financing of the proposed US$10 billion New Economy programme, demanding a detailed funding plan and accountability for existing initiatives .

Amin Adam noted that only GH¢110 million was allocated to the 24-Hour Economy programme in the 2026 Budget, against a projected US$4 billion investment target and a goal of creating 1.7 million jobs by 2028 .

Finance Minister Forson has ruled out additional borrowing, saying the New Economy will be funded through 1.5% of GDP annually from domestic revenue and savings from fiscal consolidation, including reducing the primary surplus target from 1.5% to 0.5% of GDP .

Whether that fiscal architecture can deliver the scale of investment Bokpin says is necessary — without reigniting the instability the government spent two years suppressing — is the question Thursday's budget will begin to answer.

Key Points:

· Bokpin's verdict: Stabilisation achieved, but spending cuts have delayed tangible benefits for citizens

· Inflation reality: October inflation rose to 5.5%, with transport at 14.1% and services at 11.5%

· Infrastructure gap: Austerity has restricted investment in growth drivers while leaving production capacity constrained

· Acknowledged progress: Falling inflation, interest rates, and relative cedi stability

· Budget ahead: 2027 "New Economy" programme to be presented November 12 amid financing questions.