Ghana’s 65-year per capita GDP growth averages 1.15% — Far below transformation threshold, says ISSER Fellow

Ghana’s economy has recorded an average annual per capita growth rate of just 1.15 per cent over the past 65 years, a pace far too slow to drive the rapid transformation needed to achieve high-income status, a Research Fellow at the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has warned.

Speaking on Channel One TV’s The Point of View, Prof. Charles Ackah presented an analysis of average annual per capita GDP growth since independence, showing that Ghana has consistently lagged behind several emerging economies that have achieved faster progress .

“Over the last 65 years, Ghana has managed just about 1.15% per annum growth per capita. GDP is not doing well,” Prof. Ackah stated. “If you compare it to other countries, they are doing 6.6%, about 5%, 4%, 3%. You need that to be able to move your economy within the next 20 to 25 years onto a high-income status” .

While acknowledging that Ghana experienced periods of rapid expansion—including years with growth exceeding 11 per cent—Prof. Ackah stressed that the low long-term average severely undermines any attempt at sustained economic transformation.

He warned that maintaining the current trajectory would delay Ghana’s transition from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income one by up to 70 years .

Widening Gap with Global Peers

The economist pointed to the dramatic divergence between Ghana and countries like China and South Korea, which were at similar or lower starting points. In 1960, Ghana’s GDP per capita stood at approximately US158. By 2024, South Korea’s GDP per capita had surged to about US2,390, with Ghana’s purchasing power parity (PPP) per capita at 8,000 international dollars—below the average of 10,000 for lower-middle-income peers .

Prof. Ackah cited Botswana, which averaged 4.77 per cent annual per capita growth over the same period, as an example of an African nation that leveraged its natural resources more effectively. He also noted that Egypt, Uganda, Lesotho, Gabon and Kenya have all recorded stronger long-term performances than Ghana, though Ghana’s average remains above the continental average of 0.92 per cent .

Structural Weaknesses and Policy Inconsistency

Ghana’s sluggish growth is partly attributed to structural issues, including the stagnation of the manufacturing sector and a failure to transition from agriculture to higher-value industries . The National Development Planning Commission (NDPC) has warned that Ghana has been stuck in a “middle-income trap” since attaining lower-middle-income status in 2010 and risks slipping back without a legally backed, long-term national development plan .

The World Bank has suggested that achieving an upper-middle-income status by 2050 would require consistent annual growth above 6.5 per cent, accompanied by bold reforms to boost productivity, improve infrastructure and strengthen human capital .

Implications for the Future

Prof. Ackah’s analysis underscores the urgent need for a policy shift. “With that kind of growth, it will take you a generation, like 70 years, before you move from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income country,” he reiterated, calling for accelerated and sustained growth to prevent Ghana from remaining a laggard in the global economy .