COPEC warns of another fuel price hike this week as global oil costs surge; transport operators threaten 30% fare increase

The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has issued a stark warning that fuel prices at Ghana’s pumps are likely to rise again in the coming days, driven by sustained increases in international crude oil and refined product prices. Speaking on Joy FM’s Midday News on Monday, Executive Director Duncan Amoah cautioned that the current upward trajectory is a direct reflection of global market dynamics, and that consumers should brace for further adjustments.

“You cannot get it any cheaper at this time anywhere. Even in the United States, fuel prices that had declined have gone back up. What you’re seeing here is a stark reflection of the kind of prices you are seeing globally,” Amoah said. He noted that benchmark pricing indices such as Platts—which determines the cost of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel on international trading floors—have climbed significantly in recent weeks. “The prices are fair based on the numbers we have in-house. These are not prices coming from people’s imaginations. Platts prices have really gone up, and I will not be surprised if that goes up again in the course of this week,” he added.

Current Pump Prices and Consumer Pain

As of Monday, July 27, petrol is retailing at approximately GH₵14.50 per litre at most filling stations, while diesel prices are hovering near GH₵18.00 per litre—levels that have not been seen since the height of the 2022-2023 global energy crisis. The steady climb over the past month has placed a heavy burden on households, businesses, and especially the transport sector. Commercial drivers, who rely heavily on diesel, have already signalled that they will be compelled to hike transport fares by up to 30% if the government does not intervene. Such an increase would ripple through the economy, raising the cost of food, goods, and services across the board.

Global Drivers Behind the Surge

Amoah attributed the local price increases to several global factors. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, production cuts by OPEC+ members, and a rebound in demand from major economies like China and India have all pushed crude oil prices above the $90 per barrel mark in recent days. Additionally, refinery margins have tightened due to unplanned outages in Europe and the US, further inflating the cost of finished products like petrol and diesel. The appreciation of the US dollar against the cedi has compounded the effect, as Ghana’s petroleum products are priced in dollars and sold in cedis.

TOR’s Commercial Crude Supply Raises Questions

Amoah also addressed the resumption of crude oil refining at the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), which had been offline for maintenance and feedstock issues. While the restart of local refining was expected to offer some relief, he explained that Ghana remains acutely exposed to international price volatility because the crude supplied to TOR is purchased on fully commercial terms. “We wanted to understand whether government was supplying crude under a strategy such as Brent-minus or WTI-minus pricing. But it appears the crude supplied to TOR was strictly commercial, meaning the refinery has to pay whatever price has been locked in on the international market,” he said.

Furthermore, the crude is dollar-indexed, so any fluctuation in the exchange rate directly affects the landed cost, which is then passed on to consumers. Amoah called on the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) and the Ministry of Energy to urgently review the existing supply arrangement. He suggested that Ghana could explore using its own locally produced crude—primarily from the Jubilee and TEN fields—under a preferential pricing mechanism to cushion the domestic market, rather than exporting all of it and re-importing refined products at international market rates.

Historical Context and Previous Price Trends

This latest warning comes after four consecutive weeks of incremental pump price increases, which have added nearly GH₵1.50 to the cost of petrol and GH₵2.00 to diesel since early June. The government had previously promised to stabilise prices through the establishment of the Gold Board and improved forex management, but the persistent rise in global benchmarks has overwhelmed these domestic measures. In the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review presented last Thursday, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson acknowledged the external pressures but did not announce any new subsidies or price caps, opting instead to maintain the existing pricing formula.

Impact on Transport and the Broader Economy

The transport operators’ threat of a 30% fare hike has alarmed commuters and consumer advocacy groups. The Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) has warned that its members are operating at a loss and cannot absorb further cost increases. A 30% fare jump would push the average Accra-to-Kumasi bus fare above GH₵200, and intra-city transport costs could rise by GH₵2-3 per trip. Civil society organisations have called on the government to temporarily reduce or waive the petroleum taxes and levies that currently account for about 30% of the final pump price, but finance ministry sources indicate that such a move would significantly dent revenue targets.

COPEC’s Call for Strategic Action

Amoah, while acknowledging that the current prices are “fair” based on market fundamentals, urged policymakers to consider long-term structural solutions rather than ad hoc interventions. “We cannot keep blaming global markets. We must find ways to insulate Ghanaians from these shocks, whether through forward contracts, strategic stockpiling, or negotiating better crude deals with our own producers,” he said. He also reiterated his call for the establishment of a national petroleum price stabilisation fund, financed by a portion of the oil revenues, to absorb the worst shocks and protect consumers during periods of extreme volatility.

What to Expect This Week

Market analysts at the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) are expected to release the next pricing window adjustments on Tuesday or Wednesday. If global crude prices hold their ground, a further increase of between 2% and 4% is anticipated, which could push petrol beyond GH₵15.00 per litre for the first time in over a year. Commuters, businesses, and the political class will be watching closely; any sharp rise could become a major campaign issue ahead of the December 2026 general elections. For now, COPEC’s message is clear: prepare for higher prices, and hope that the government has a plan beyond watching the market.