Bond Market turnover plunges 68% to GHc2.12bn as new four-year bond siphons investor attention

Ghana’s secondary bond market experienced a sharp contraction last week, with turnover falling by 68.28% week-on-week to GH¢2.12 billion, as investor interest shifted toward a heavily oversubscribed new government bond issue, according to Databank Research .

The dramatic decline in secondary market activity coincided with the government’s successful pricing of a new four-year Treasury bond maturing in September 2030, which attracted GH¢4.46 billion in bids, with GH¢3.15 billion accepted at a clearing yield of 12.00% .

Secondary Market Concentration

Despite the overall volume decline, trading remained concentrated in the belly of the curve. Securities maturing between 2031 and 2034 accounted for a dominant 74.22% of total turnover, trading at a weighted average yield of 14.39% .

The 2027–2030 maturity segment contributed 18.72% of turnover at an average yield of 13.47%, while post-2035 maturities accounted for just 7.06% of activity at an average yield of 14.72% .

Primary Market Demand Surge

The new four-year bond, issued via a book-building process that opened on September 1, 2026, recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.41 times, with the government accepting approximately 70.57% of the total bids submitted .

The bond cleared at a yield of 12.00%, at the lower end of the pre-auction market expectation of between 12.00% and 13.50% . This represented about 130 basis points above the post-Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) four-year secondary market reference rate of approximately 10.7%, but 50 basis points below the 12.50% yield on the seven-year bond issued in March/April 2026 .

The bond will be listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange and is backed by the full faith and credit of the Republic of Ghana under a bullet repayment structure, with Absa, CalBank, Fincap, GCB, OA and Stanbic serving as active bond market specialists .

Strategic Timing Fuels Liquidity Shift

Databank Research attributed the timing of the new issuance to strategic considerations, pointing to improved liquidity conditions from two key sources: the GH¢2.3 billion COCOBOD DDEP payment and GH¢5.82 billion in unallocated bids from the August 31 treasury bill auction .

The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) settled GH¢2,306,202,372.09 in bond obligations under the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme on September 1, 2026, completing its mandatory payment obligations for the year . This followed an earlier coupon payment of GH¢376.33 million made in March 2026, bringing COCOBOD’s total DDEP payments for the year to over GH¢2.68 billion .

The Board also settled GH¢162 million in July 2026 to holders of Cocoa Bills who did not participate in the DDEP, closing out its remaining obligations to that group .

Market Outlook

Analysts believe the convergence of these liquidity inflows and the strong primary market demand redirected investor attention away from secondary market trading, contributing to the sharp turnover decline .

“Looking ahead, we expect the market to recover modestly following the settlement of the bond,” Databank Research said . The settlement and official issue date for the new four-year bond was scheduled for Monday, September 7, 2026 .