Bank of Ghana warns of fiscal risks amid weak revenue and rising compensation pressures

The Bank of Ghana has issued a stark warning about growing fiscal risks to the economic outlook, citing weak revenue performance and mounting pressures from employee compensation in 2025.

In its January 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank stressed that while ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts should help reduce debt accumulation and service costs, significant challenges remain.

According to the report, sustained improvements in real growth, lower real interest rates, and exchange rate stability are critical to achieving medium-term debt sustainability.

Total revenue and grants for 2025 reached GH¢187.87 billion, representing 13.4% of Gross Domestic Product. This fell short of the GH¢201.372 billion target, which would have equated to 14.4% of GDP.

Domestic revenue specifically totalled GH¢186.569 billion (13.3% of GDP), below the GH¢199.045 billion target (14.2% of GDP). The underperformance was attributed to shortfalls in tax revenue, oil and gas receipts, and grants.

The Central Bank also cautioned that completing the remaining external debt restructuring negotiations could create short-term external payments challenges, with potential implications for the domestic currency.

“Significantly large reserve accumulation remains key to meeting high external debt service payments and containing exchange rate pressures,” the report noted.

Looking ahead, the Bank indicated that more domestic savings would be required to meet external debt service obligations.