Oil Rebounds from Two-Month Low as Hormuz Attacks Offset Iran Truce Hopes

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recovering from two-month lows hit in the previous session, as the market wrestled with competing signals: hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war and fresh evidence that attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying rather than abating.

Brent futures for January delivery climbed 71 cents, or 0.78%, to $92.20 a barrel by 0119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude for December rose 49 cents, or 0.57%, to $86.53. The previous session had seen both benchmarks close at their lowest levels since August 31, with Brent settling at $91.49 and WTI at $86.04 .

A Record Pace of Attacks

The rebound was driven by data that underscored the persistent risk to a waterway carrying roughly a fifth of global oil supply. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy recorded 37 ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways in October—the highest monthly total since the war began—with 10 more already recorded in November.

Videos verified by Reuters showed a Navig8 tanker on fire near the coast of Oman on Sunday, one of three tankers struck that day for using "unauthorised routes" through the strait, according to Iranian state broadcaster. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said in a separate statement Tuesday that two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on the "unauthorised route."

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported Tuesday that a tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile approximately 19 nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman, with the crew reported safe .

Truce Hopes, But No Talks

The previous session's price slump had been triggered by US officials downplaying the need for further military strikes against Iran. But those losses were partly reversed after Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tuesday that no negotiations were currently taking place between Tehran and Washington .

Rezaei said Iran had demanded clear and specific responses to seven conditions outlined in a June interim agreement before any resumption of talks or reopening of Hormuz shipping lanes. Washington had not yet replied, he added.

The conflicting signals have left traders navigating a market where diplomatic headlines can move prices sharply, but physical risks on the water remain unresolved.

The Obstacles to Normalisation

Even if a deal were struck, analysts cautioned that restoring flows through Hormuz would not be immediate. LSEG analysts noted in a November 10 research note that any increase in transit would depend on mine clearance, insurance costs, and whether shipowners would be willing to accept the risk.

"Meanwhile, attacks have not slowed," the analysts said.

The International Maritime Organization has recorded 120 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East since the conflict began on February 28. More than 30 very large crude carriers were damaged in attacks, including 11 in October alone—representing roughly 3.5% of the global VLCC fleet .

Supply-Side Crosscurrents

Beyond the Middle East, other supply factors were in play. US crude stocks rose by 9 million barrels in the week ended November 6, according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute data, a bearish signal that weighed on prices.

In Russia, oil refining capacity has been reduced by approximately 30% since late October following renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, industry sources said—a bullish factor for product markets.

Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first peace talks since February, as US President Donald Trump's envoys launched a fresh push to end the war.

The US Energy Information Administration, in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, raised its Brent forecast for 2026 to $97 a barrel and for 2027 to $86, citing lower global inventories and Middle East supply disruptions. The EIA expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel through the remainder of 2026 before easing as inventories rebuild .

Key Facts:

· Brent: $92.20/bbl, up 71 cents (0.78%)

· WTI: $86.53/bbl, up 49 cents (0.57%)

· October attacks: 37 ships hit in Hormuz and surrounding waterways—record monthly total

· November attacks: 10 recorded so far

· Diplomatic status: Iran says no talks with Washington; US downplays military escalation

· US crude stocks: Rose 9 million barrels last week (API data)

· Russia refining: Capacity down ~30% since late October due to Ukrainian drone strikes.