Ghana T-Bill Auction Oversubscribed by 41% as Investors Flood Short-End; 91-Day Yield Edges Up

Ghana's government exceeded its treasury bills target by 41% at the latest auction, raising GH¢5.01 billion against a target of GH¢3.54 billion, even as the yield on the 91-day bill ticked upward — a signal that investors remain hungry for short-term government paper but are pricing in caution at the very front end of the curve.

According to Bank of Ghana auction results, total bids tendered amounted to GH¢5.01 billion, of which GH¢4.10 billion was accepted. The auction followed the government's borrowing of approximately GH¢14 billion through short-term instruments in October 2026, underscoring the continuing reliance on the domestic market to finance the budget .

Breakdown of the Auction

The 91-day bill dominated proceedings, attracting GH¢3.0 billion in bids — 59% of the total — of which GH¢2.9 billion was accepted. The 182-day bill drew bids of about GH¢1.6 billion, with GH¢934.50 million accepted, while the 364-day bill received GH¢388.45 million in bids, of which GH¢243.15 million was accepted .

Mixed Yield Movements

Interest rates moved in divergent directions along the yield curve. The yield on the 91-day bill rose by 2.0 basis points to 4.56%. The 182-day bill declined to 6.20% from the preceding week's 6.26%, while the 364-day bill dropped by 12.0 basis points to 9.48% .

The uptick at the very short end comes despite Ghana's broader disinflation trajectory. Headline inflation stood at 5.5% in October 2026, below the Bank of Ghana's target band of 6% to 10%, and the central bank has cut its policy rate from 28% to 14% since 2024 . The 91-day yield at 4.56% remains deeply negative in real terms — below the rate of inflation — meaning investors in the shortest instrument are accepting a real loss on their holdings.

The Broader Debt Picture

The strong demand for T-bills reflects both ample liquidity in the banking system and the government's continued need to roll over short-term obligations. Ghana's domestic debt stands at roughly GH¢253 billion, with a significant portion held in short-dated instruments. The government has said it plans to lengthen the maturity profile of domestic debt over time, but the auction results suggest that appetite remains concentrated at the short end.

The auction comes as Ghana pursues an investment-grade sovereign credit rating, with Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson arguing that achieving that status would lower borrowing costs and lay the groundwork for corporate bond issuance . The mixed yield movements at this auction — a slight rise at the 91-day tenor but declines at the longer tenors — suggest investors are responding to the improving sovereign narrative by reaching for slightly longer-dated paper, even as very short-term liquidity management keeps the front end elevated.

What It Means

For the government, the 41% oversubscription is a welcome signal of market confidence and provides comfortable cover for its refinancing needs. But the continued heavy reliance on T-bills carries risks: short-term debt must be rolled over frequently, exposing the budget to refinancing risk if market sentiment shifts. The decline in 182-day and 364-day yields may offer modest relief on the interest bill, but the persistent elevation of the 91-day rate — even as inflation falls — suggests investors are demanding compensation for uncertainty at the shortest horizon.