Bokpin Credits Government with "Doing Quite Well" on Stabilisation, But Warns Benefits Will Take Time

Economics Professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin has credited the government with largely delivering on its two-year stabilisation agenda, citing falling inflation, lower interest rates, and a relatively resilient cedi, while cautioning that the benefits of that recovery will take time to reach ordinary Ghanaians.

Speaking on Joy News' PM Express on Tuesday, Bokpin assessed the government's performance against the 2026 Budget and concluded that the macroeconomic gains were real.

"I would say they've done quite well in restoring macroeconomic stability," he said .

But he was careful to qualify the verdict: "The question is, we are still restoring macroeconomic stability. Let me put it that way" .

The Evidence of Progress

Bokpin's assessment is supported by the data. Ghana completed the sixth and final review of its IMF Extended Credit Facility in July 2026, unlocking a final disbursement of US3 billion. Inflation had fallen to 5.3% in June 2026 from double-digit rates, while international reserves nearly doubled to US$11.9 billion, enough to cover four months of imports. The primary budget balance swung back into a surplus equivalent to 2.1% of GDP, and the risk of debt distress was reduced to moderate .

By September, inflation had eased further to 5.2%, though it has since edged up to 5.5% in October, driven largely by transport and services costs . The cedi recorded a 0.60% gain against the dollar in October, moving from GH¢11.71 at the end of September to GH¢11.64, offering some relief after significant depreciation earlier in the year .

Bokpin linked the government's approach to the IMF-supported programme, noting that the administration had set 2025 and 2026 as years for restoring stability, with spending cuts featuring prominently in both budgets.

The Limits of the Approach

But Bokpin also highlighted the costs of the strategy. The 2025 and 2026 budgets relied heavily on expenditure restraint to bring inflation down by shrinking aggregate demand, rather than by expanding the economy's capacity to produce.

"If you choose that approach, you will get the result, but the impact will not be felt by Ghanaians," he said .

He pointed to the daily reality of commuters on Ghana's major roads as evidence of the gap between statistical progress and lived experience.

"If somebody is spending nine to 12 hours to travel from here to Kumasi, inflation of 5.2% means nothing to that person," Bokpin said .

He said the method used to stabilise the economy meant households would have to wait for the benefits: "It's simply because the approach we have adopted in restoring macroeconomic stability is going to take a while to reflect in the lives of Ghanaians" .

The Budget Ahead

Bokpin's assessment comes two days before Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson presents the 2027 Budget on Thursday, November 12, under the theme "New Economy." The budget is expected to outline the government's four-year, US$10 billion investment programme aimed at shifting Ghana from stabilisation to transformation, with priority sectors including agriculture, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and tourism .

The Minority in Parliament has questioned how the programme will be financed, demanding an account of existing flagship initiatives—particularly the 24-Hour Economy—before new commitments are made. Dr Mohammed Amin Adam, Ranking Member on the Finance Committee, noted that only GH¢110 million was allocated to the 24-Hour Economy in the 2026 Budget against a projected US$4 billion investment target .

Bokpin's assessment offers the government both validation and a warning. The stabilisation has been achieved, but the political and social contract now depends on whether the New Economy can deliver what austerity could not: visible, tangible improvements in the lives of citizens who have yet to feel the recovery.

Key Points:

· Bokpin's verdict: Government has "done quite well" in restoring macroeconomic stability

· Evidence: Inflation down from double digits, reserves nearly doubled, primary surplus restored, cedi relatively stable

· Qualification: Stabilisation remains a work in progress; benefits will take time to reach households

· Critique: Spending cuts reduced demand without expanding productive capacity

· Budget ahead: 2027 "New Economy" programme to be presented November 12 amid financing questions.