Ghana secures IMF staff-level agreement on first PCI review as economy shows resilience

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ghana have reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of the country’s 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) programme, signalling that macroeconomic stability is becoming more entrenched even as external risks persist.

An IMF staff team led by Ruben Atoyan visited Accra from 22 October to 4 November 2026 for discussions on the review. The agreement remains subject to approval by IMF Management and the Executive Board. The non-financing PCI, which provides a framework for policy coordination and reform without direct financial disbursements, was approved by the IMF Executive Board in July 2026 following the completion of Ghana’s previous Extended Credit Facility arrangement.

In a statement issued at the end of the mission, the Fund said Ghana’s economy remains resilient. Real GDP grew by 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, driven by investment, and is projected at 5.7 per cent for the full year. Inflation stood at 5.5 per cent in October 2026, remaining below the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 8 per cent (±2 percentage points). The fiscal position is strong, with the primary surplus on track to meet the end-year programme target, while public debt has declined significantly in recent years.

“These gains, together with the buffers built in recent years, allow the authorities to partly absorb the external shock stemming from the war in the Middle East,” the statement noted.

Performance under the PCI was assessed as broadly satisfactory, with most quantitative targets met. In response to a recent decline in foreign exchange reserves, the authorities have taken corrective steps, including shifting foreign exchange intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) and enforcing higher gold sale requirements for large-scale miners. The IMF emphasised that steadfast implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, will be essential to rebuild reserves in line with programme objectives.

Structural reforms remain on track. Authorities have published the Fiscal Strategy Document, secured parliamentary approval of the new Cocoa Board Act to strengthen sector governance and financial discipline, continued quarterly electricity tariff adjustments, and completed a comprehensive review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule. Work is progressing on reforming the Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management framework, rolling out the Integrated Tax Administration System, operationalising the Fiscal Council, and preparing the Fiscal Risk Statement. Completing remaining reforms, including the delayed publication of the audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s collection accounts, was highlighted as important.

The 2027 Budget is aligned with the PCI, targeting a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP on a commitment basis. Revenue measures already approved by Parliament in July will support this target. The fiscal space created is intended for priority investments under the government’s New Economy agenda, focused on job creation, investment opportunities and closing the infrastructure gap. Rigorous project appraisal, competitive procurement and strict expenditure controls will be critical to ensure value for money and preserve debt sustainability. Non-oil revenue is projected to rise further in 2027, supported by recent tax measures, the customs and excise review, and gains from revenue administration reforms including electronic fiscal devices.

Despite the progress, the IMF cautioned that vulnerabilities remain, particularly on the external side. Ghana is exposed to volatility in gold, cocoa and oil prices, as well as geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions. Domestic risks include significant domestic debt rollover needs, fiscal pressures from the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, and remaining financial sector weaknesses. Prudent monetary policy, greater exchange rate flexibility, stronger reserve buffers and the buildup of a sinking fund for maturing debt were identified as key to safeguarding stability.

Strengthening governance was also flagged as a priority, including adoption of the Conduct of Public Officers Bill, publication of the second National Ethics and Anti-Corruption Action Plan, and improved oversight of state-owned enterprises to build public trust and support private investment.

The IMF team expressed appreciation for the constructive discussions with Ghanaian authorities and reaffirmed its commitment as a partner in efforts to preserve stability and achieve stronger, more inclusive and job-rich growth.

The agreement comes as Ghana continues to consolidate gains from its recent economic recovery, with the 2027 Budget expected to outline how the New Economy programme will translate stabilisation into broader prosperity through job creation and higher incomes.