PwC calls for vigilance on inflation, interest rates as global risks mount for Ghana’s economy

– As Ghana navigates a fragile economic recovery under its ongoing IMF-backed fiscal consolidation programme, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has issued a stern advisory to Chief Executives and corporate boards, urging them to closely monitor the trajectory of monthly inflation, Treasury bill yields, and commercial bank lending rates over the coming months.

The professional services firm’s warning comes against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which it says threatens to reverse the disinflationary gains made in the domestic economy and severely impact commodity and financial markets.

In its latest economic outlook assessment, PwC noted that while first-half macro-stability has improved, Ghana’s second-half performance is increasingly exposed to the global energy cycle. The firm highlighted that the government’s capital expenditure (capex) programme—which saw significant underspending in H1—must be executed swiftly to send the right confidence signals to the private sector.

Global Headwinds and Stalled Disinflation

The advisory points to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) baseline projections for 2026, which peg global growth at a modest 3% and global inflation at 4.7%, while warning that the global disinflation process has effectively stalled. The IMF’s assumptions are predicated on average oil prices hovering around US86 per barrel for Brent crude.

More alarmingly for Ghana’s agricultural sector, the World Bank projects a 31% rise in fertiliser prices, with urea prices expected to spike by as much as 60%. This poses a direct threat to the upcoming planting seasons, particularly given the government’s “Feed Ghana” initiative, which PwC acknowledged is meaningful but warned could be undermined by input cost surges.

“A prolonged Middle East conflict will inevitably raise fuel, freight, insurance, and food production costs,” the firm stated, adding that this would worsen Ghana’s trade balance and intensify domestic transport and electricity price pressures.

Reversal of Global Monetary Easing

A further complication outlined by PwC is the re-emergence of a tightening bias among major central banks. Renewed energy inflation is curbing the capacity of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England to cut interest rates. PwC cautioned that a “higher-for-longer” global interest rate environment would delay Ghana’s much-anticipated return to affordable international capital markets, while simultaneously increasing the cost of trade finance and external corporate borrowing.

This comes at a critical juncture for Ghana, which is seeking to regain market access following its debt restructuring efforts. A prolonged delay in accessing concessional financing could put pressure on the domestic currency, which has shown signs of steadiness in recent months.

Spotlight on Domestic Indicators

PwC specifically advised boards to pay meticulous attention to:

· Monthly Inflation Data: Particularly the food and imported components as reported by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), which serve as leading indicators for cost-push pressures.
· Treasury Bill Rates: The benchmark 91-day T-bill has been a key barometer of market liquidity and fiscal appetite.
· Lending Rates: The pass-through effect of T-bill movements to commercial bank lending rates, which remain high, will determine the pace of private sector credit growth.

Upside Opportunities Remain

Despite the grim global outlook, PwC identified crucial upside opportunities. Elevated gold prices—driven by safe-haven demand—are providing a buffer for Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves and export earnings. Additionally, supply-chain diversification out of traditional manufacturing hubs could attract foreign direct investment into Ghana’s industrial zones. The firm also highlighted the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a potential engine for regional exports, while Ghana’s relative political stability continues to be a competitive advantage in a volatile region.

Sector-by-Sector Implications

In its sectoral breakdown, PwC offered a mixed bag of assessments:

· Manufacturing: While lower interest rates and a steadier cedi are positive, the main risk is a resurgence in imported input costs. Furthermore, delayed infrastructure spending—particularly on roads, power, and industrial zones—is deterring new investment.
· Agriculture (Grains, Poultry, Livestock): Government support through Feed Ghana and enclave roads is useful. However, PwC noted that projects like the Poultry Farm to Table initiative have been criticized for poor conceptualisation and execution, requiring careful reassessment.
· Cocoa and Mining: External earnings remain supportive, but firms are urged to hedge aggressively against commodity price volatility and potential policy shifts in the mining sector.
· Oil and Gas/Energy: While reforms are underway, legacy arrears and State-Owned Enterprise risks remain material. PwC described this as a sector with “upside, but not yet fully de-risked.”
· Banking and Insurance: Macro-stabilisation is helping asset quality and balance-sheet predictability. However, margin compression and re-pricing risks will require prudent management.
· Construction and Real Estate: Lower lending rates are supportive, but the government’s capex sequencing and the cost of imported building materials remain the key swing factors.
· Retail and Importers: Near-term consumer demand may see a slight uptick, but effective foreign exchange management is absolutely essential to maintain margins.
· Technology and Telecoms: These sectors remain among the clearest medium-term beneficiaries of ongoing digitalisation and formalisation initiatives.

Call to Action

PwC concluded its assessment by urging corporate leaders to adopt a “vigilant yet agile” approach in the coming quarters. With global volatility acting as an external anchor on domestic gains, the firm stressed that proactive risk management—particularly around interest rate sensitivity, currency exposure, and supply-chain resilience—will be the defining factor for Ghanaian businesses in the second half of 2026.