Messi surges to favourite for record ninth Ballon d’Or as World Cup final looms

---

---

London, England — Lionel Messi is the clear favourite to win a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or, according to the latest betting odds, as the 39-year-old prepares to lead Argentina into Sunday’s World Cup final against Spain.

According to prediction market Polymarket, where more than $8 million has already been traded on the outcome, Messi currently holds a 31.7% to 42% probability of claiming football’s most prestigious individual prize. The surge follows Argentina’s dramatic 2-1 semi-final victory over England, in which Messi provided two assists.

---

The Odds

Rank Player Probability
🥇 Lionel Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami) 31.7% – 42%
🥈 Lamine Yamal (Spain/Barcelona) 27% – 30.9%
🥉 Harry Kane (England/Bayern Munich) 13.5% – 16%
4th Rodri (Spain/Man City) ~13%
5th Ousmane Dembélé (France/PSG) ~2% – 3.1%
6th Kylian Mbappé (France/Real Madrid) ~1%

---

The Case for Messi

Messi has recorded eight goals and four assists at the tournament, making him the most productive player in the competition with 12 direct goal contributions. He is also the joint-top scorer alongside Kylian Mbappé.

At club level, Messi led Inter Miami to the MLS Cup title in 2025, scoring 35 goals in 34 games. He currently has 12 goals in 14 appearances this season.

A victory on Sunday would make Messi the first player in history to captain his nation to back-to-back World Cup triumphs—a feat that would all but seal his ninth Ballon d’Or.

---

The Challengers

Lamine Yamal, at just 19, is aiming to improve on his runner-up finish in 2025. Despite managing only one goal and no assists in seven World Cup matches, he has been a key figure for Spain and enjoyed a stellar Barcelona season with 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 games.

Harry Kane remains in contention with six World Cup goals, though England’s semi-final exit has diminished his chances. Reigning holder Ousmane Dembélé saw his odds plummet following France’s elimination.

---

From 50-1 to Favourite

Perhaps most remarkable is Messi’s transformation in the betting markets. When the World Cup began, he was priced at 50-1 to win the Ballon d’Or. His extraordinary campaign has rewritten the race.

The Ballon d’Or organisers recently confirmed there is no geographic restriction on the award, addressing questions about Messi playing in MLS rather than Europe.

---

The Final Word

The winner will be unveiled on October 26 during the 70th edition of the ceremony, staged in London for the first time since the award’s inception in 1956.

But for Messi, the most important stage comes first—MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, this Sunday, where a World Cup triumph would make history, and almost certainly secure an unprecedented ninth Golden Ball.

---