Ghana Meteorological Agency Warns of "Very Strong" El Niño: Hotter, Drier, Dustier Dry Season Ahead, Heat Stress to Peak

The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has issued a warning that a "very strong and still intensifying" El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean will likely persist into the first half of 2027, bringing hotter, drier, and dustier conditions to most parts of Ghana. According to GMet's advisory released on October 30 and revised after scientific review by its board on October 27, the probability of this El Niño reaching "very strong" intensity between November 2026 and January 2027 is approximately 96%, and heat stress is expected to peak between February and April 2027, particularly in the northern regions.

El Niño Intensity Approaches Record Levels

Citing data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, GMet noted that the El Niño event is still strengthening and has the potential to become one of the strongest on record. International climate institutions, including NOAA, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), unanimously agree that this event will peak between now and January 2027, then gradually weaken during the first half of the year. The WMO had warned as early as May 2026 that this El Niño would be "at least moderate, possibly strong," and urged countries to prepare in advance.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon characterized by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts global atmospheric circulation and affects rainfall and temperature patterns in West Africa and beyond. Ghana's experience with past El Niño events—particularly the very strong events of 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16, as well as the moderate event of 2023/24—demonstrates the country's vulnerability to rainfall variability and its impacts on agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, and public health.

Uneven Rainfall Distribution, Flood Risks Persist

GMet's October-December outlook indicates below-normal rainfall across most parts of Ghana, but above-normal rainfall is still expected in certain areas: inland parts of Greater Accra and Central Region, southwestern Volta and Eastern Region, parts of Bono and Savannah Regions, and northwestern Upper West Region. Temperatures will be above average in most areas, but the southwest and some parts of the Volta Region (particularly between Ho and Kete Krachi) may experience below-average temperatures.

Despite the overall forecast of below-normal rainfall, GMet cautions that localized heavy downpours and flooding remain possible. This warning comes just four months after the June 29 floods, which according to the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) resulted in 34 deaths and displaced 91,046 people nationwide. Communities along the Volta River and residents of low-lying urban areas are advised to remain vigilant and continue following safety guidance from NADMO and the Volta River Authority (VRA).

Dry Season Risks: Heat Stress, Bushfires, Meningitis

For the dry season from late November 2026 to March 2027, GMet projects hotter, drier, and dustier conditions across many areas, increasing the risks of bushfires, water shortages, and crop and livestock heat stress. Heat stress is expected to be most severe between February and April 2027, especially in northern Ghana.

GMet also warns that hot, dry, and dusty conditions may exacerbate the seasonal meningitis risk in northern Ghana. However, the agency emphasizes that this should not be simplistically attributed to El Niño alone—the north was vaccinated against the epidemic strain in 2012, and the 2015/16 outbreak was caused by different pathogens, making laboratory confirmation essential for vaccine targeting. GMet and the Ghana Health Service plan to issue heat health advisories based on agreed temperature thresholds, targeting older persons, young children, outdoor workers, chronically ill individuals, and residents of crowded urban households, with nighttime temperatures included in northern regions since high nighttime temperatures prevent the body from recovering from daytime heat.

Energy and Agriculture: Hydropower Risks Lag, Cocoa Most Vulnerable

Regarding hydropower, GMet notes that electricity generation during the 2026/27 dry season mainly depends on water already stored in Lake Volta. This year's above-normal rainfall in Burkina Faso and the controlled spillage of the Bagré Dam since August 28 have provided relatively good inflows. The El Niño-sensitive period for hydropower is the 2027 inflow season, which will determine generation capacity in 2028.

Agriculture is the most exposed sector due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed farming. In northern Ghana's single rainy season region (May-October), maize, millet, sorghum, rice, and groundnuts depend on timely and consistent rainfall. Cocoa is exposed to both excessive rainfall during flowering and early pod development, as well as dry season drought. Research cited by GMet indicates that El Niño tends to reduce the former risk while increasing the latter. During the 2023/24 El Niño event, heavy rainfall from April to June followed by severe drought from November to February reduced Ghana's cocoa output by an estimated 20%.

Uncertainty Surrounding 2027 Rainy Season

GMet states that the onset and performance of Ghana's 2027 rainy season remain "uncertain in both directions": if El Niño weakens slowly or the Gulf of Guinea remains cool, late and weak rains are possible; if La Niña develops by mid-2027, above-normal rainfall in the north, flooding, and Volta Dam spillage become more likely. The agency will issue updated forecasts for the 2027 rainy season in early 2027.

Response Recommendations: From Early Warning to National Mechanism

GMet advises farmers to monitor weather updates and agricultural advisories from GMet and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting, consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate, and avoid bush burning. Northern residents are advised to minimize dust exposure and seek immediate medical attention if they develop symptoms such as fever, severe headache, or neck stiffness. The general public is advised to drink adequate water during hot periods, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest parts of the day, and check on vulnerable individuals including older persons, young children, and those who are unwell.

At the institutional level, GMet is calling for the establishment of a "National El Niño and Dry Season Preparedness Task Force" that would coordinate relevant ministries including food and agriculture, health, energy, water resources, local government, and finance, together with the Volta River Authority, reporting monthly to the Cabinet during the peak risk period. Other recommendations include real-time monitoring of Lake Volta water levels, pre-positioning of drought-tolerant seeds and meningitis vaccines, replenishment of NADMO relief supplies, and a national public awareness campaign.

GMet states that it is monitoring the El Niño event daily and will continue to provide updated weather outlooks as conditions evolve, along with its regular ten-day agricultural bulletins, and will work with stakeholders in disaster risk management, energy, agriculture, water resources, health, local government, transport, mining, and maritime sectors to translate forecasts into timely, location-specific preparedness and response measures.