COPEC Predicts November 1 Pricing Window: Petrol Price Down 1.71%, Diesel Up 4.07%

The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has released its forecast for the first pricing window of November 2026, projecting a decline in petrol prices alongside a notable increase in diesel prices starting Sunday, November 1. According to the statement, the average retail price of petrol is expected to fall by 1.71% from the current average of GH¢17.02 per litre to GH¢16.72 per litre, while diesel is anticipated to rise by 4.07% from GH¢18.40 per litre to GH¢19.15 per litre .

Petrol: International Prices and Cedi Appreciation Drive Decline

COPEC attributes the projected petrol price decrease primarily to a significant drop in the international Free On Board (FOB) price. The FOB price of petrol fell 4.45%, from 1,199.16 per metric tonne**. Additionally, the Ghanaian cedi appreciated by approximately 0.6% against the US dollar during the period, providing further downward pressure on the local retail price .

Based on these factors, COPEC projects that petrol will sell within a range of GH¢15.89 to GH¢17.57 per litre, allowing for a ±5% variance depending on the pricing strategies of individual Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) .

Diesel: Rising International Costs Outweigh Currency Gains

Conversely, the outlook for diesel is upward. Despite the same 0.6% appreciation of the cedi, the FOB price of diesel increased by 2.71%, moving from 1,453.07 per metric tonne**. This international cost pressure is strong enough to push the projected retail price to GH¢19.15 per litre, representing a 4.07% increase. Diesel is expected to be sold within a range of GH¢18.19 to GH¢20.11 per litre .

NPA Price Floors Align with Projections

The COPEC projections follow recent adjustments by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) to the price floors for the November 1–15 window. The NPA reduced the petrol price floor from GH¢16.09 to GH¢15.39 per litre and raised the diesel floor from GH¢17.09 to GH¢17.41 per litre . These floors serve as minimum benchmarks, excluding margins and premiums set by OMCs, and signal the direction of retail prices. The consistency between the NPA floor adjustments and COPEC's forecast reinforces the expectation of a mixed pricing environment at the pumps.

Market Context and Consumer Impact

The divergence in fuel prices reflects contrasting trends in international refined product markets, where petrol benchmarks eased while diesel tightened. The relative stability of the cedi, which has held below GH¢11.70 to the dollar in recent weeks, has helped cushion the impact of international price movements .

For consumers, the upcoming window offers modest relief at the petrol pump but higher costs for diesel users, including commercial transport operators and industries reliant on diesel-powered logistics. As always, final pump prices will depend on the specific pricing decisions made by individual OMCs, and consumers are advised to monitor announcements from their preferred stations.