IMF Set to Conclude First Ghana PCI Review as 2027 Budget and Fiscal Targets Take Centre Stage

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Ghana is expected to wrap up its first review of the country's Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) this week, with the final engagements set to scrutinise Ghana's performance against quantitative targets through September and the policies needed to lock in recent economic gains.

The mission, led by IMF Mission Chief Ruben Atoyan, will hold closing discussions with Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson and Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Johnson Asiama, and is also expected to meet members of Parliament's Finance Committee . The wrap-up follows two weeks of engagements with civil society organisations and site visits, including to the Tema Oil Refinery, as well as discussions covering the banking sector, energy, Ghana's debt position, and reforms at state-owned banks .

Fiscal Performance and the 2027 Budget

Ghana's fiscal performance, revenue mobilisation, and preparations for the 2027 Budget have dominated the review, with the IMF team examining economic results for the first nine months of 2026 and the expenditure controls needed through year-end . The discussions come as the government prepares a budget expected to prioritise infrastructure investment, a shift that will be tested against the PCI's fiscal framework.

Under the PCI, Ghana's targeted primary budget surplus is set to ease from 1.5% of GDP in 2026 to 0.5% in 2027 and thereafter, a change the IMF has said would create carefully calibrated fiscal space to address development needs while preserving the legislated 45% debt-to-GDP anchor by 2034 . However, amendments to Ghana's Public Financial Management Act in 2025 set a minimum annual primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP alongside the debt target, and the government has not publicly set out how it intends to reconcile the lower PCI target with the statutory requirement .

Monetary Policy and Central Bank Health

On monetary policy, the mission has discussed Ghana's inflation-targeting framework and foreign exchange arrangements, and has assessed the Bank of Ghana's financial position, international reserves, and measures to safeguard its independence . The central bank's recapitalisation plans and the transfer of operational responsibility for the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme to GoldBod—intended to reduce quasi-fiscal risks after the programme generated losses equivalent to 1.5% of GDP in 2025—remain part of the reform agenda .

What the PCI Means for Ghana

The PCI is a non-financing instrument that allows Ghana to maintain close policy engagement with the IMF without borrowing under the arrangement. It supports the design and implementation of economic reforms and helps demonstrate policy credibility to investors and development partners, though participating countries must pursue policies meeting standards comparable to IMF lending arrangements .

The instrument succeeded Ghana's $3 billion Extended Credit Facility, which the IMF Executive Board completed in July 2026 after the programme delivered substantial stabilisation gains: inflation fell to 5.4% at end-2025, gross international reserves nearly doubled, and the risk of debt distress returned to moderate . The PCI's reform pillars include sustaining growth-friendly fiscal discipline, safeguarding debt sustainability, strengthening fiscal transparency—particularly for state-owned enterprises—enhancing monetary and exchange-rate frameworks, reinforcing financial sector stability, and supporting economic diversification .

The review's outcome will offer an indication of the IMF's assessment of Ghana's fiscal and monetary performance, and is expected to go to the IMF Executive Board in January 2027 . For Ghana, it provides an opportunity to demonstrate progress on policy commitments and reinforce confidence among investors and development partners as the country prepares its 2027 fiscal framework .