Ghana Not Out of the Woods Yet, GNCCI CEO Warns Despite Single-Digit Inflation

Ghana's return to single-digit inflation has offered welcome relief, but the chief executive of the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GNCCI) has cautioned that rising prices for locally manufactured goods show the business environment remains fragile and the recovery incomplete.

Mark Badu-Aboagye, speaking on Joy News' PM Express Business Edition on Thursday, said that while conditions had broadly improved, the detail within the latest inflation data told a more nuanced story. "If you look at the numbers, the cost of locally manufactured goods, the inflation for it went up a bit, which should tell you that we are still not out of the woods yet," he said.

His caution came alongside a largely positive assessment of the broader economic climate. Badu-Aboagye described the 2026 budget as business-friendly, noting that tax relief measures had supported both businesses and consumers, while falling interest rates had eased production costs. "Relatively, business has been good. Things are a bit better as compared to previous years," he said.

The Numbers Behind the Warning

Ghana's headline inflation rose for a third consecutive month to 5.5 percent in October 2026, up from 5.2 percent in September, according to the Ghana Statistical Service . While the rate remains well below the Bank of Ghana's medium-term target band, the composition of the increase vindicates Badu-Aboagye's concern about local production.

Locally produced items recorded inflation of 6.9 percent in October, nearly triple the 2.4 percent rate for imported goods, and accounted for 86.4 percent of the overall inflation rate . The pressure was most acute in services, which surged to 11.5 percent from 8.3 percent in September, with transport recording the highest divisional inflation at 14.1 percent .

The GNCCI chief acknowledged that businesses themselves had contributed to moderating headline inflation by exercising restraint on price increases. "If you see inflation at a single digit, among other factors, the fact that businesses have not been increasing their prices excessively," he said.

When challenged by the host over whether the national average masked divergent experiences across different consumer baskets, Badu-Aboagye conceded that regional disparities persisted. The Ashanti Region recorded inflation of 9.7 percent in October, while the Northern Region registered negative 0.5 percent, meaning prices there were lower than a year earlier .

Exchange Rate Stability and Policy Gaps

Badu-Aboagye identified exchange rate stability as a significant contributor to lower inflation, alongside improved production costs. The cedi has held steady against the dollar in recent weeks, trading at approximately 11.67 to the dollar, supported by improved interbank liquidity and softer corporate foreign-currency demand .

However, he argued that additional tariff relief alongside the budget's tax measures could have brought down the cost of locally manufactured goods further. "Inflation would have been a bit lower," he said.

The 2026 budget introduced a series of tax reforms aimed at easing business costs, including a reduction in the effective VAT rate from 21.9 percent to 20 percent, the abolition of the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy, and an increase in the VAT registration threshold to GH¢750,000 . These measures were projected to return approximately GH¢3.7 billion to individuals and businesses in 2026 .

A Cautiously Optimistic Business Community

Badu-Aboagye's comments align with the GNCCI's broader assessment of the business environment in 2026. In September, Chamber President Stephane Miezan noted that the first half of the year had been "relatively good" compared with the same period in 2025, citing improvements in cedi stability, inflation, and interest rates . However, Miezan cautioned that global developments, including geopolitical tensions, continued to require prudence from local firms .

The Bank of Ghana has maintained its policy rate at 14 percent since March, monitoring price pressures linked partly to fuel and fertiliser supply constraints . With inflation rising for three consecutive months, the latest figures may influence the central bank's decision when officials meet on November 18 .

For Badu-Aboagye, the message is one of qualified relief: the trajectory is positive, but the pressure on Ghanaian manufacturers has not yet eased enough to declare the battle won.